Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades

Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades

An understanding of the limit on potential predictability is crucial for developing appropriate tools for extended-range prediction of active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The global low-frequency changes in climate modulate the annual cycle of the ISM and can influence the intrinsic predictability limit of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Using 104-year (1901–2004)...

Empirical Prediction and Predictability of Dry and Wet Spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Prediction of the active (rainy) and break (dry) phases of the Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO’s) two to threeweeks in advance is of great importance for food production and water management of the country, but is currently unavailable. Potential predictability inherent in the quasi-periodic nature of the monsoon ISO’s is estimated from daily rainfall and circulation data ...

Interannual relationships between Indian Summer Monsoon and Indo-Pacific coupled modes of variability during recent decades

Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks

[1] Extended range prediction (two to three weeks in advance) of Indian summer monsoon active (rainy) and break (dry) phases are of great importance for agricultural planning and water management. Using daily rainfall and circulation data for 23 years, a fundamental property of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO’s) is discovered and shown that the potential predictability limit ( 20 da...

A synoptic study on seasonal patterns of wet and dry spells in midwest of Iran

The effective patterns and mechanisms of synoptic systems during the wet and dry spells in Midwest of Iran(MWI) analyzed and discussed on seasonal scales from 1974 to 2003. Synoptic Analysis is based on synoptic chartson Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 850 and 500 Hpa levels. The results of synoptic analysis show that dry spells in MWIare mostly corresponded to Azores High (AZH) intensifying and its ...